Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-07-27 5.110572 6.001202 6.985131 8.150530 9.490864 10.981711 12.763150
2025-08-03 3.668416 4.845441 6.286756 8.171129 10.558152 13.468520 17.271617
2025-08-10 2.665452 3.898802 5.548528 7.892793 11.109933 15.337213 21.272686
2025-08-17 1.975322 3.163636 4.881617 7.505907 11.362488 16.759987 24.805922
2025-08-24 1.564202 2.715188 4.496968 7.395120 11.911654 18.579963 29.032035
2025-08-31 1.271461 2.375881 4.195128 7.325935 12.466179 20.420598 33.446169
2025-09-07 1.112218 2.218857 4.144283 7.624930 13.602790 23.233240 39.600635
2025-09-14 0.945658 2.010461 3.963558 7.664352 14.297506 25.395767 44.924240
2025-09-21 0.809181 1.828056 3.792903 7.684420 14.942677 27.519697 50.368427
2025-09-28 0.696735 1.668681 3.634852 7.695684 15.558422 29.635525 55.978642
2025-10-05 0.670415 1.685013 3.819678 8.381775 17.486703 34.222198 66.292090
2025-10-12 0.607590 1.607043 3.798493 8.652131 18.648235 37.527403 74.598067
2025-10-19 0.553621 1.541732 3.800029 8.982960 19.994944 41.356618 84.317107
2025-10-26 0.482913 1.420766 3.660438 8.996759 20.709803 44.071989 92.232665
2025-11-02 0.402977 1.257107 3.393964 8.689775 20.715833 45.404711 97.618173
2025-11-09 0.330245 1.094109 3.098004 8.266253 20.410637 46.071965 101.739422
2025-11-16 0.284124 0.994684 2.941009 8.144886 20.753880 48.091676 108.750735
2025-11-23 0.246845 0.911908 2.811419 8.069188 21.187865 50.335606 116.409174
2025-11-30 0.229895 0.888960 2.838960 8.395649 22.603449 54.819214 129.151277
2025-12-07 0.204902 0.832789 2.763054 8.438673 23.336463 57.858268 139.025924
2025-12-14 0.182386 0.778986 2.683927 8.460576 24.018115 60.839618 149.012629
2025-12-21 0.162398 0.728671 2.605734 8.472871 24.675495 63.820856 159.234973
2025-12-28 0.163094 0.757030 2.776842 9.221680 27.324852 71.673786 181.069340